Carolina (7.5) is likely relying on a rookie quarterback this season and also gave away their best receiver to acquire that rookie QB. Atlanta (win total of 8.3) has some pretty good talent on both sides of the ball but will trot Desmond Ridder, a second-year QB who no one is really sure of right now, out under center. The same optimism can’t be shared about the rest of the division. The Saints added Derek Carr at QB, should get Michael Thomas back, and still have a very good offensive line and defense. The NFC South was awful last year and New Orleans is the only team who projects to be much better than they were last season. Just like above with the Pats, their division plays a big role in this. The easiest schedule in the 2023 NFL season belongs to the New Orleans Saints. Even the Dolphins (fifth-toughest) and Jets (eighth-toughest) find themselves among the top ten most difficult schedules in 2023. It should be no surprise that we see another AFC East team on the list of toughest schedules after what you read above. The Patriots have to face 2.7 more wins than the team with the second-toughest schedule, the Bills and Chiefs. They take on the AFC West, which projects to be tough games against the Chiefs, Chargers, and (maybe) Broncos, and NFC East, which will bring tough games against the Eagles, Cowboys, and (maybe) Giants. But even when the Pats get out of the AFC East, it doesn’t get a lot easier. Six of New England’s games will be played against divisional foes in the Bills (win total of 10.5), Dolphins (9.5), and Jets (9.5). The division is going to be brutally tough this year, and is a big reason why the New England Patriots possess the league’s toughest schedule in 2023. The AFC East was a tough division last year, before the New York Jets added Aaron Rodgers under center. It is the New England Patriots who enter the 2023 NFL season with the most difficult schedule ahead and the New Orleans Saints with the easiest path. The easiest schedule this year is notably easier than last season, where the low end was still 137. The median sum of 2022 opponents’ win totals is 145.6, while the average (mode) is 145.4. The range in my NFL Strength of Schedule rankings is from 129.9, on the easy end, to 156, on the tough end. Using 2023 NFL win totals, I have come up with my own NFL Strength of Schedule by adding the projected wins (from sportsbooks) of each team’s 17 opponents this season. Note: 1 is the most difficult, while 32 is the easiest 2023 schedule. Here’s the NFL SOS for every team using this much more accurate method, as well as how this method has performed in terms of predicting future outcomes in previous seasons. The league released its full 2023 NFL schedule on Thursday, May 11, but NFL win totals opened back in late March. A handful of years ago, I came up with the idea to use the win totals put out by sportsbooks each season to determine how difficult each team’s schedule was going to be. We should be using something much more forward-looking instead. Stop this! There are far too many flaws involved in this method.
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